Player piano as economic indicator

Garet Garrett, Ouroboros, or the Mechanical Extension of Mankind (NYC: Dutton, 1926) labors to explain what a player piano means:

As I write, the strains of a Liszt rhapsody float into my window. They come from a farmer’s cottage a little way down the road. Yesterday a motor truck stopped at his house and unloaded a self-playing piano. I saw it and noticed that it got slightly damaged squeezing through the tiny doorway. What does this mean? First, it means that day before yesterday a salesman from the city went through this road selling self-playing pianos for a nominal cash sum down and the balance on monthly instalments. He sold one there, another in the next house but one, and a third further on. How many he sold to the end of the road I do not know.

But what does it mean that the city sends a man through a country road in southern New Jersey to sell pianos in this beguiling manner to people who cannot afford them? Those who bought them I know were all in debt for other things bought on the instalment plan. It means there is a necessity to sell this industrial product. It is the necessity of a factory that has overtaken the normal demand for self-playing pianos and must force the sale of its surplus. It is the necessity of all who work in that factory and live thereby. It is the necessity of industry in general, governed as it is by a principle it did not invent. [pp.11–12]

PDF (109pp., 3.2MB) here, courtesy of the Ludwig von Mises Institute, a/k/a Tragedy Central.

William Gaddis sees things a bit differently (“‘Stop Player. Joke No. 4‘”), but notes:

More than 200,000 player pianos were built in 1916. They amounted to 65 percent of the total piano production, enough to satisfy the most ardent fanatic and to warn anyone familiar with business graph curves of the impending decline and fall.

(Garrett via Risks)

Shock therapy

The NYT offers a curious meditation on the historical parallels between the collapse of the USSR (when “shock therapy” was the order of the day) and the US’s current difficulties:

081002 NYTian slip

Just in time:

“The time of domination by one economy and one currency has been consigned to the past once and for all,” Medvedev said during a forum alongside Chancellor Merkel.

“We must work together towards building a new and more just financial-economic system in the world based on the principles of multipolarity, supremacy of the law and taking account of mutual interests.” [AFP, “Era of US financial dominance over: Medvedev,” 2 Oct ’08]

Jones Day

EFF:

The firm of Jones Day filed the lawsuit against the real estate news site Blockshopper.com, alleging that using its trademark “Jones Day” to refer to the firm in a headline and linking to the Jones Day website could lead to confusion over the sponsorship of the site. In its amicus brief, EFF and Public Citizen argue that these routine references to Jones Day are well-established fair uses of a trademark and clearly protected by the First Amendment.

JDRP nine years ago:

Newly elected [...] put it best when he spoke of the lingering problems with the [...] agreements: “I don’t like these agreements… This is the best agreement we could have, given the circumstances… What I still wonder is why the circumstances were artificially altered.” He went on to say that he thinks the U.S. government owes us an explanation of how this whole fiasco came about.

—ICANN boardmember Amadeu Abril i Abril on the NSI agreements

(bwg+)

Top of the morning

NYT photo: GWB pushing for a bailout in Congress, 29 Sep '08

It’s morning in America.

When was the last time GWB gave a press conference in light like that? Desperate times call for desperate measures.

What do you mean “we”, kimosabe? [updated]

Did Rick Davis have his hooks in Dean’s operations in early ’04?

3EDC’s website as archived on 10 Jun ’04:

E3DC site as of 10 Jun 04

Who’s we?

So what was Rick Davis up to in early summer ’04?

3EDC’s website as archived almost three months earlier, on 18 Mar ’04, said: “Welcome nicco.trueserver.com to Your New Server!”

Who’s nicco?

How about Nicco A. Mele, former deanforamerica.com webmaster, who was hired by McCain’s chief political strategist John Weaver as of 23 Aug ’06 under the leadership of…Rick Davis (who ”helped to corral the current roster of talent”). His resignation from the McCain effort was reported on 30 Jan ’07.

Mele’s blog is here, his company is here, a 29 Jun ’07 Mother Jones interview here (“A small minority can always manipulate. Technology is relatively irrelevant”); Garance Franke-Ruta’s 28 Aug ’06 comment on the hire here.

If nicco.trueserver.com points at Mele, was he working with Davis’s 3EDC in March ’04—in the middle of Dean’s ’04 presidential run and two years before his 24 Aug ’06 statement in support of McCain?

So, again: what was Rick Davis up to in early summer ’04?

A bit more

3EDC’s website as archived on 2 Mar ’07 lists five “strategic partners.” Three are boring:

[Update: New Media Communications just got more interesting with Mike Connell’s subpoena for vote-tampering in 2004.]

But two might be more interesting in this context:

“A Developed Economy Infected by the Usury Virus”

JulianBleecker (Flickr, 21 Sep 2008), Everyday Digital Money conf, UC Irvine, 18-19 Sept 2008

Photo: Julian Bleecker, Everyday Digital Money conf, UC Irvine, 18-19 Sept 2008.

(B***S***)

“an infrequent user of e-mail”

Waxman to former Lehman CEO Dick Fuld:

In conversations with Committee staff, your counsel stated that he and his team are working on collecting your e-mails from this time period, but they expect to produce relatively few to the Committee because you were an infrequent user of e-mail.

Your counsel and his team have also informed Committee staff that they do not currently plan to produce any documents sent, received, or reviewed by you during the past six months that are nonelectronic, such as internal memoranda from company officials, assessments of the company’s potential liabilities, or warnings of the company’s impending collapse. According to your counsel, although these documents did exist at one time, they were typically “discarded.”

Committee staff asked your counsel and his team if they had consulted with the likely sources of these hard copy documents, such as top company officials, but your counsel was unable to identify a group of senior company officials who regularly provided documents to you. Your counsel was unwilling to commit to identifying such a group to the Committee at any time.

Neener neener, not telling!

Dang gummint

The U.S. Mint is temporarily halting sales of its American Buffalo 24-karat gold coins because it can’t keep up with soaring demand as investors seek the safety of gold amid economic turbulence. The 1-ounce coin has a face value of $50 but is priced for sale according to the fluctuating value of gold.

Which aspect of “soaring demand” is the problem?

(“Mint runs out of gold coins - sales halted,” SF Chronicle, 27 Sept ’08)

O really?

Olympic Mottoes Borrow Lines from O Canada,” CBC, 25 Sep ’08:

Two phrases borrowed from Canada’s national anthem have been chosen as the mottoes for the 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games, and organizers have already moved to protect the commercial rights to the lines.

The lines “With glowing hearts” from the English version and “Des plus brillants exploits” from the French version will soon be emblazoned on Olympic merchandise and promotional material as a national campaign to promote the mottoes is rolled out across Canada this fall.

more… –>

Going through the motions

A-list blogger 1:

(Desperate and Reckless: Ramp up Georgia crisis for votes; call off half the GOP convention; pick a demonstrably unqualified freshman governor to salvage his campaign; call for firing head of the SEC; now ask to have presidential debates delayed or canceled so he can politicize the bailout debate…)

A-list blogger 2:

Why he seems so anxious to remind us of this fact is a mystery.

McCain doesn’t want to win: “Election ’08: what if?” (26 July), “McCain doesn’t want to win” (1 Sept), “Governing by the seat of his pants” (17 Sept).

Roger that

Kaplan, “Hunting the Taliban in Las Vegas,” theatlantic.com (Sep ’06):

But the Predator, especially as it is improved, may also interfere with decision making. As one pilot told me: “No general will want to attack something without visual confirmation from a Predator. It’s the old story—by the time you have all the evidence, it’s too late to affect the outcome.” Rather than expanding the opportunities for operations, the Predator could end up restricting them, even as we fight enemies who have no compunction about waging total war.

Moskos, Cop in the Hood: My Year Policing Baltimore’s Eastern District (Princeton, NJ: Princeton UP, ’08):

Car patrol eliminated the neighborhood police officer. Police were pulled off neighborhood beats to fill cars. But motorized patrol—the cornerstone of urban policing—has no effect on crime rates, victimization, or public satisfaction. Lawrence Sherman was an early critic of telephone dispatch and motorized patrol, noted, “The rise of telephone dispatch transformed both the method and purpose of patrol. Instead of watching to prevent crime, motorized police patrol became a process of merely waiting to respond to crime.” [p. 93]

(Moskos via marginal revolution)

QOTD

“It might turn out that, without anyone really noticing, the global financial system has gradually turned into something that is mostly a MMORPG.”

—Daniel P. B. Smith, “Risks of financial systems too complex to understand,” RISKS 25.34

An Army of one

CJR:

Bob Owen, chief photographer of the San Antonio Express-News, notified the AP that the photos of two deceased soldiers, who died in Iraq on Sept. 14, were nearly identical. Upon examining the photos, Owens noticed that everything except for the soldier’s face, name, and rank was the same. The most glaring similarity, Owen told CJR, was that the camouflage patterns of the two uniforms were “perfectly identical.”

AP-retracted DoD photo of deceased soldier

(McGinley, “Army Alters Photographs, Issues Them to AP,” CJR, 19 Sep ’08)

Marlboro man

How the North Vietnamese exploited McCain’s nicotine habit for propaganda purposes, and how, since then, McCain—and everyone else—can’t see the forest for the tobacco plantation

Young McCain talking and smoking

Hugh E. Scott, the maintainer and registrant of unfitmccain.com, offers “eight reasons for voting against” McCain, most of which are mainstays of leftish commentary. But one reason treads on a subject that most leftish commentators steer clear of (if only to avoid this): “6. McCain distorted his so-called heroic POW record and exploited it for political gain.” Scott describes himself as a “freelance journalist, newspaper feature writer, novelist, Vietnam veteran, ex-USAF pilot, lifelong registered Republican and author of the 2004 nonfiction book, George Dub-ya Bush, THE PHONY FIGHTER PILOT“ (Philadelphia: Xlibris Corporation [a print-on-demand shop], 2004). Another site registered to Scott, freedomcentralusa.com (“dedicated to the destruction of domestic fascism—also known as neoconservatism—using truth and the Internet as WMDs”) provides more biographical detail: “Texas A&M graduate (Class of 1956) [...] and Goldwater conservative with a family history of honorable military service going back to 1776.”

On the unfitmccain.com site’s “McCain POW record” page (awkwardly titled “Donations”), Scott talks about the problem that smoking poses for POWs:

more… –>

Symbolic manipulators

FT:

The programmers of Super Mario Galaxy will generate more profit this year than the average Goldman Sachs banker has ever managed. According to calculations by the Financial Times, the average employee at Japanese video games maker Nintendo is on track to earn more for their company this year than the average Goldman Sachs employee did in 2007, the investment bank’s best ever year. Nintendo also makes more per employee than internet group Google.

(Harding, “Nintendo makes more profit per employee than Goldman,” 15 Sep ’08)

Governing by the seat of his pants

John McCain, on the virtues of presiding while seated:

Offshore drilling:

“I’m sorry Congress is gridlocked again on offshore drilling,” McCain said. “When I’m president, we’ll all sit down together and work this out.” [Schmidt’s Sausage Haus und Restaurant, Columbus, OH, Jul ’08]

Palin:

“She stands up for what’s right, and she doesn’t let anyone tell her to sit down.” McCain said in introducing her to an Ohio rally. “She’s exactly who I need.” [AP, Ohio, Aug ’08]

Financing his campaign:

McCain: Right now I’m saying, though, we examine all the options all the time. Every few days we sit down—where are we going, what are we doing, like every campaign I’ve ever been in, what are all the options. [Fox, 21 Oct ’07]

Bipartisanship:

McCain: I know these people very well. I’ve worked with them for years. I’ve reached across the aisle to my favorite Democrat, Joe Lieberman, Russ Feingold, Ted Kennedy, I know these people and I’ve worked with them. Bryron Dorgan on the Indian Affairs Committee, Carl Levin on the Arms Services Committee. I know how to work with them. I know how to sit down with them and get things done. And that’s been my practice and that’s—as long as there are 60 votes required in the Senate that’s what you have to do. I mean there’s no choice. So it makes for a lot of collegiality that otherwise wouldn’t exist. [Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, Jul ’08]

The surge:

more… –>

Casual Sunday

Robert Wolf (CEO, UBS Americas), Steven Black (co-CEO, JPMorgan Chase), and Vikram Pandit of (CEO, Citigroup) try out this season’s casual style as they head into Sunday meetings held by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York:

CEOs x3 head into town for some Sunday shopping

CEOs hit the city for Sunday shopping

Nouriel Roubini, who appears to be always right these days, says: “If Lehman collapses expect a run on all of the other broker dealers and the collapse of the shadow banking system.

Life during wartime

Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness, in Newsweek (Skipp, “The Holdouts,” 12 Sep ’08):

We just did a study on evacuations under scenarios of disasters without warnings. We are very concerned about disasters that occur without warning when we have to do evacuations in real-time—in essence, immediate—for example, an earthquake or a terrorist nuclear attack. We found about two thirds of people with children would not comply with official orders to evacuate until and unless they were able to retrieve their children from school or day care. If we have two thirds of the population with children that would not comply, what we would have is evacuation chaos and an absolute breakdown of disaster response in circumstances that provided no warning. Under those circumstances, unless we got much better at having well-developed disaster plans that parents were comfortable with, we can anticipate extreme chaos as public officials would be unable to stop parents determined to get their kids. [emphasis added]

One third of US parents would abandon their children to chaos. In the USG’s view, a “terrorist nuclear attack” seems to be relatively moderate chaos compared to, say, to the “extreme chaos” of families searching for each other.

Feb ‘74

Doonesbury, 74 Feb 11

Doonesbury, 74 Feb 13

Doonesbury, 74 Feb 14

Doonesbury, 74 Feb 15

Doonesbury, 74 Feb 16

Doonesbury, 74 Feb 18

Doonesbury, 74 Feb 19

United Airlines crashes into event horizon

FT:

United Airlines plunged yesterday after a false report that the carrier had returned to bankruptcy court surfaced on the internet. A six-year-old Chicago Tribune story on United’s 2002 bankruptcy filing, spotted on a Google search yesterday morning by an investment newsletter, triggered a massive sell-off of the carrier’s shares until trading was halted. [...] United had refuted a report by late morning in New York, but not before the stock lost more than 75 per cent of its value. The shares appeared to trade at 1 cent, the default price assigned following its halt.

Google won’t adopt the normal US solution to stupidity by stickering its front page with warnings that anticipate every possible basis for litigation; but, given the rate at which “information” is accumulating, this kind of snafu is likely to happen more and more often. So, if Google’s mission is indeed “to organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful,” then finding new ways to integrate time into search results will necessarily become an increasingly important aspect of fulfilling that mission.

Google now delegates timestamps for indexed pages to archive.org (through the “history” link in search results) and embedding them in the visible header of cached pages; but for a can-do company busy underwriting new spy satellites, laying submarine cables, providing satellite connectivity in equatorial regions, etc, etc, sidestepping the comparatively simple question of when a webpage was created smacks of avoidance. In any event, Google knows very well how rarely people actually click on the cache and history links in ways that would suggest they’re trying to establish the historical context of a page. So, while incredibly useful for a few, the presence of the cache and history links carries the familiar scent of a popular corporate risk-avoidance strategy: devolving risk to the consumer. But, as United and its investors have seen, the problem comes when that consumer is in a position—for example, through network effects—to cause major, distributed trouble. This is a shared problem, and the tacit appeal to the lowest common denominator that pervades talk about UI design is no refuge from it, particularly for a firm whose reach cuts across myriad demographic lines.

Two things Google could do to address the problem of outdated “information”: (1) include an explicit timestamp in the search results block, and (2) expand its advanced search criteria to include start and end time-delimiters, rather than just predefined options for how “recent” results are. These two things could go a long way toward minimizing the kind of error that led to the UA fiasco—and, more positively, advancing Google’s stated mission.

(FT, Baer, “United Airlines Shares Plunge 75% After Six-year-old Bankruptcy Story,” 9 Sep ’08)

“Deprivatization”

“Shorter” Krugman:

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shouldn’t have been private, so even though they were just nationalized let’s say they were “deprivatized.” And besides, Bush isn’t Thatcher.

And Putin “deprivatized” Yukos.

Memory lane: GWB explains pretzel

“I always wished the Times was printed on plexi…

…and now my dreams have come true!”

three electronic paper proototypes

The NYT covers the hype about a new digital device, a letter-size grayscale screen, but omits key words such as “hard” or ”stiff” in lieu of the more flexible term “flexible.” Apparently unaware that the hardcopy NYT has been printed in color for over a decade (since 16 Oct ’97), the NYT reports that the device‘s grayscale display capacity “mimics the look—but not the feel—of a printed newspaper.” No word yet on whether the device’s resolution will allow it to display engravings, use an eight-column design, or make a big deal about running factually incorrect headline in italics (1, 2, 3, infinity).

Somewhere in the mists of time, an NYT poobah dismissed USA Today along these lines: At last it’s come full circle: television you can wrap your fish in. A spokespage for Google was contacted but would not confirm the comment.

(BB)

Exporting democracy

Good news:

Date: Tue, 19 Aug 2008 18:03:50 -0700
From: vim@duncan.cx
Subject: States throw out costly electronic voting machines

The demise of touch-screen voting has produced a graveyard of expensive corpses: Warehouses stacked with thousands of carefully wrapped voting machines that have been shelved because of doubts about vanishing votes and vulnerability to hackers.

What to do with this high-tech junkyard is a multimillion-dollar question. One manufacturer offered $1 a piece to take back its ATM-like machines.

Bad news:

Some states are offering the devices for sale on eBay and craigslist. Others hope to sell their inventories to Third-World countries

Good news:

or salvage them for scrap.

(Risks)

John Whitney, “Catalog” (1961)

(Yeti)